The Incontiguous Brick

January 13, 2009

Is Russian planning to invade Ukraine?

Filed under: Our World,politics,Russia,Ukraine,Warnings,Wordpress Political Blogs — iknowkeith @ 5:37 pm

Is the real reason to cut natural gas exports a trick to justify an invasion of Ukraine?

For nearly a week, A large portion of eastern Europe has been without heat. This is because hundreds of thousands of Europeans have been without gas since Gazprom cut supplies nearly a week ago. First, the Russian company claims Ukraine has blocked gas deliveries to Europe while Ukraine says Russian stopped the flow of gas. Then Russia admitted to stopping the gas but siad they resumed pumping again.

Gazprom deputy head Alexander Medvedev said Ukraine had failed to carry the gas westwards to Europe after it resumed pumping it across their border. Ukraine counters that the pipeline route that Russia is using to send the gas makes it technically impossible to deliver.

Kiev said it could not pump the gas as Russia had switched the transit route.

Either way, Europe is cold and people are getting desperate while Moscow has been unable to resolve differences with Ukraine over debts and pricing.

…So that sums up the situation as reported in the media.

sickleBut maybe there is more to the story than just corporate greed….

Perhaps Russia is ready to take back some of its former territory. Perhaps Russia is tired of pissant little countries like Ukraine (that Moscow once controled) attempting to dictate trade agreements to them. Perhaps Putin is rearing his head.

This may be one of those genius geopolitical gambits that history will look back on and say, “evil, but damn clever.”

With gas shut off to Europe during a cold spell and people getting desperate, this is one time when Russia can do anything as long as the gas flows again. If that means roll tanks into Ukraine to force a settlement and turn on the gas then Europe could accept that. As long as the gas flows again. Get ready for another land war.

Europe is hooked on Russian gas like a crack whore on the rock and will accept almost anything to get it back. Russian troops ensuring the stability of gas exports may be a big pill to swallow but not too big when you are cold.

Now is also a great time because the U.S. leadership is in a transition phase and in no place to do more than complain. With world economies on the brink and western armies stretched thin, this is a great time for a land war Russian style.

Need another reason? How about the Ukraine missile shield deal with the U.S.? Last August Ukraine said they wanted to join join other European nations to establish a ballistic missile shield defense system. Moscow was not happy.

With plummeting temperatures and unhappy people, most of Europe will probably welcome a Russian invasion of Ukraine if it means stable gas supplies.


1 Comment »

  1. Putin has Yulia in his pocket. There’s going to be some stuff going down in Kiev but it isn’t going to be an external neo Soviet invasion.

    Comment by Alfie — January 14, 2009 @ 8:12 am | Reply

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