The Office of the Director of National Intelligence has released the unclassified conclusion of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear program entitled Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities.
The press release is available at
But don’t trust the media to tell us what is in this thing. You can read it for yourself at:
Here are some highlights:
“We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons. We judge with high confidence that the halt, and Tehran’s announcement of its decision to suspend its declared uranium enrichment program and sign an Additional Protocol to its Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Safeguards Agreement, was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran’s previously undeclared nuclear work.
We judge with moderate confidence Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame (INR judges Iran is unlikely to achieve this capability before 2013 because of foreseeable technical and programmatic problems). All agencies recognize the possibility that this capability may not be attained until after 2015.
We judge with high confidence that Iran will not be technically capable of producing and reprocessing enough plutonium for a weapon before about 2015.”
This should make it pretty tough for anyone to make a case for attacking Iran.