Ron Paul has been dominating the straw polls for months. Many in the media have decried these victories as false indicators claiming they do not represent the actual views of the American population. This has become so extreme that many polls have been removed from websites after Paul has demonstrated an overwhelming victory to hide the results.
Perhaps the most blatant discrediting of Ron Paul’s support was when a commentator of FOX news called their own polls invalid to Ron Paul’s face.
I can see a legitimate complaint if these were only web based polls that could be hacked. However, Paul wins the text message polls that allow only one call per phone. Therefore 1 supporter = 1 vote.
This early in the race, there are a few things going on that may invalidate the “real” polls:
- Many average people just don’t care yet and have not heard of all the candidates because it is still too early in the race.
- Where do they get data on “likely republican voters” anyway? Bush supporters?
- Most of the real polls that I have seen only give the results but not the question. There is a big difference between “Which candidate most closely fits your beliefs” and “Which candidate is most likely to win?”
What a straw poll represents is what a small group of people believe, not the majority. But that group is the small group of people that actually care enough to watch a debate and then vote for the candidate that they like. And if these are the polls that Ron Paul is winning, then I think he is doing pretty good in this race.