The Incontiguous Brick

July 16, 2007

China won’t fight until it goes “all in”

Filed under: China,Warnings — iknowkeith @ 9:43 pm

    “All warfare is based on deception.
    Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near. Hold out baits to entice the enemy.
    Feign disorder, and crush him.” – Sun Tzu

china-military.jpgChina’s military is among the largest and most advanced fighting forces on the planet. US DOD Estimates on military spending range from 70 to 104 billion in 2006. These are only estimates because Chinese have little transparency in their military budgets. With all this spending it begs the question, why? Unlike the super militaries of the rest of the world, China has seen only sparse action since the Korean War. What does the PRC want for its Yuan?

For starters, the primary role of the Chinese military has gone through significant changes since the 1950s war. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was once a 4 million-man force of low-tech soviet weapons and outdated doctrine. Their primary use was for local border wars and the suppression of the Chinese people. The 1989 Tiananmen Square incident is perhaps the most famous use of Chinese military force for domestic disturbances but the use continues today. The PLA also plays a large part in politics and heavy-fisted support of the communist party.

Today’s Chinese army is more than just a Falun Gong torturing, democracy crushing mob. Now they are becoming a leaner, high-tech force with all the modern trimmings.

new unknown Chinese mobile ballistic missile systemCurrently, the PLA has reduced its numbers by half while increasing spending dramatically. Military spending has maintained a roughly %12 yearly increase since 1990. Weapon purchases are becoming increasingly sophisticated and centered on the ability to defeat US forces or to crush Taiwan.

The some of the newer weapons include:

    Sovremennyy destroyers
    Kilo class and other submarines
    SU-27/30/33 Flanker aircraft
    Surveillance satellites

These aren’t too good for domestic disturbances but are real good at hurting the US Navy.

According to Bill Gertz, a long-time reporter of Chinese military issues, “The buildup of China’s forces includes an array of high-technology arms, including new long-range ballistic and cruise missiles, anti-satellite attack weapons, computer warfare troops, intelligence satellites, and airborne and sealift forces that can be deployed over long distances.”

Most recent developments include the launch of a domestically produced version of GPS. This could allow the PLA to continue to use GPS-like technology after using ASAT missiles or jammers to thwart the US based GPS systems.

With all these scary facts comes a rather odd stance…
China continually promotes the idea that they are a harmless nation whose only international interest is economic prosperity for all. Many American analysts and academics have repeatedly pushed the idea that China is not a threat and the PLA is ineffectual as a fighting force.

    Probably worth pointing out that some of these top advisors have been convicted of spying for China! Too bad they already published their propaganda and are widely quoted.

The bottom line is a good indicator of intentions when it comes to China’s foreign policy. Since the reforms of the Deng era to today, Chinese foreign policy has been guided by economics more than ideology. This translated into the military modernization of the PLA as well. There is still a lot that can be inferred by where the money is spent. The central PRC budget committee is not likely to invest in military capabilities that it does not deem vital to national interests.

These new capabilities are a threat to the U.S. military. However, China is careful to appear backwards and “safe” from the American perspective. Once the PLA steps up and proves itself as a capable force (against someone other than the US military) it will catch the attention of the world and spark the fear of the world as well. So for now the PLA will remain relatively unnoticed because of the constant propoganda from Beijing telling us how nice and peaceful they are. Beijing will host the 2008 Olympics. The slogan is “One World, One Dream.” Notice, it doesn’t say whose dream. Even the Nazis held an Olympics before starting WWII.

For now, China is happy to remain in the background. But when the dragon decides to wake up…

j10-03.jpgFor the U.S. – A final thought from the master:
The art of war teaches us to rely not on the likelihood of the enemy’s not coming, but on our own readiness to receive him; not on the chance of his not attacking, but rather on the fact that we have made our position unassailable. – Sun Tzu

20 Comments »

  1. If India goes to war with China today – we’ll be crushed!

    We were beaten even in 1962 – but today China’s military might is incredible.

    Trackback by ekjut.com — July 17, 2007 @ 12:37 am | Reply

  2. Oh no! The Chinese aren’t attacking anyone! This is proof that they intend to attack someone! We must destroy them!

    But if we’re quoting Sun Tzu, here’s what we can expect from the Chinese:

    “Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.”

    Comment by Milivoj — July 17, 2007 @ 1:06 am | Reply

  3. Very good blog, very rich nice pictures and articles, congratulations !!!

    Comment by valentin10 — July 17, 2007 @ 5:28 am | Reply

  4. An army that has not fought a war is not a battle ready army.

    Comment by Matt Silb — July 17, 2007 @ 5:43 am | Reply

  5. Man.. i doubt the chinese is trying to do anything. If anybody that wants to start a war. My opinion is that China wants to become strong..so they can protect themselves from potential invaders. That’s just my 2cents.

    Comment by spike23q — July 17, 2007 @ 7:53 am | Reply

  6. What’s all this fear of China about anyway? Are we afraid that they will behave the way we have. Galavanting about the globe setting up military bases wherever we please. There’s this foolish attempt going on to instill the fear that China is out to take over the world. Isn’t it more rational to say that China is afraid America is out to take over the world? I mean, check the stats, count the bases. It’s not China we are afraid of, its ourselves. China is building up its military, Russia is about to rebuild its military as well. Why, because we are quickly surrounding them with military bases while claiming they are the ones on the offense. It’s a distortion and to fall into this simple thought trap only shows your limited ability to think independently beyond fear mongering headlines and that makes you and your ilk dangerous to freedom.

    Comment by rtl3 — July 17, 2007 @ 8:50 am | Reply

  7. China will not use conventional weapons. They will use economics🙂

    Comment by vondunkelheit — July 17, 2007 @ 10:27 am | Reply

  8. China is an extremely insular culture (their stance towards Tibet and Taiwan notwithstanding), and they realize they if they want to keep their efficacy high in a world that abhors isolationists, they’ll need one of the most powerful militaries out there.

    http://mikeelliottsblog.wordpress.com

    Comment by Mike Elliott — July 17, 2007 @ 11:38 am | Reply

  9. Kilo class subs are not really “blue water ” in nature.The Chinese Navy is NO threat to the USN. The Chinese have a need to develop real power projection military resources. Look at where they get their oil. The rely on the sources other nations have had the luxury to shun.That is what is behind modernization. Also re: Chinese using economics vs arms. Think about it. China steps well out of it’s norm. World blockades. Kilo can’t help economy tanks.

    Comment by in2thefray — July 17, 2007 @ 11:40 am | Reply

  10. china have a high tech arms but what about his green berets?

    Comment by novik — July 17, 2007 @ 6:40 pm | Reply

  11. Eeen i have some thing interesting to share with u….a chinese power map…
    http://prabhagovind.wordpress.com/2007/06/13/chinese-world-power-map/

    Comment by Prabha Govind — July 17, 2007 @ 10:09 pm | Reply

  12. Great Blog!!!

    Comment by Prabha Govind — July 17, 2007 @ 10:10 pm | Reply

  13. re comment by Mike Elliot,

    Its the “not with standing comment” that everyone tends to over look and why?? They do have so much on in China that we in the west generally never know about except from crusader journalists like Bill Gertz and of course the brave Falun Gong practitioners who happen to have millions of contacts in China and are willing to keep on exposing the atrocities every day year after year..At least some are listening….

    I read a great speech by US congressman Frank Wolf yesterday.. which i have uploaded to my site today check it out cause i have never seen a list put together quite like this one before. Makes you understand why so many groups are boycotting the 2008 Olympics now.

    http://www.atruechineserenaissance.blogspot.com/

    Great Blog iknowkeith.. did you know that when former Chinese President Jiang Zemin first met President Bush he gave him the book “The Art of War”…?

    Comment by Jana — July 18, 2007 @ 1:15 am | Reply

  14. […] and continues to grow larger each year we import more than we sell. Now that China is building the military muscle to not be pushed around, it is ready to do some pushing. What better way to start pushing than with […]

    Pingback by China’s use of extortion diplomacy « The Incontiguous Brick — August 11, 2007 @ 8:53 am | Reply

  15. pretty good blog, very informative.
    communism is a peaceful form of government as far as foreign policy goes, so I see no problem with China’s powerful military, if there is ever a major conflict opposing countries to this will be the ones to create it. not china or communism

    Comment by lew333 — November 7, 2007 @ 8:55 pm | Reply

  16. CHINA! PEOPLE SAY THEY’RE PEACEFUL COUNTRY, WELL I REALLY DONT THINK SO. THEY’VE KILLED MILLIONS OF THEIR OWN PEOPLE , MUSLIM MINORITY AND TIBETAN PEOPLE. WORLD SHOULD BE READY IF CHINA ASK FOR WAR WE’LL GIVE THEM.SUPPORT COUNTRY THAT RESPECT HUMNA BEING AND RELIGION.
    I AM READY TO FIGHT COMMIES a******

    Comment by JIMMIE — January 1, 2008 @ 1:11 pm | Reply

  17. are you fucking kidding me ? NO IDIOTS AMERICA GETS ITS RESOURCES FROM OTHER COUNTRIES
    NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND, CHINA KICKED YOUR ASS ONCE, AND YOU’RE SCARED OF THE FACT NOW THEY
    HAVE SURPASSED U, LIKE EVERY COUNTRY IS INDEED DOING, YOUR ECONOMY RELIES ON OTHER COUNTRIES
    CHINA,TAIWAN,EUROPE,MEXICO,JAPAN ETC IS WHERE ALL YOUR SHIT IS COMING FROM, IT WOULD BE FOOLISH TO START SHIT WITH THEM, IT WILL BE FOOLISH TO START SHIT WITH CHINA, CAUSE THEY WILL OWN THAT ASS AGAIN !!!!!

    YOU ARE THE PRIVELAGED ONES, AND YOU WONDER WHY OTHER COUNTRIES HATE THE US ? CAUSE YOU BOAST SO MUCH BULL SHIT YET GETTING A LENDING HAND FROM EVERY FUCKING COUNTRY THERE IS, YOU DO NOT SHIT ! ON YOUR OWN

    Comment by Konai — February 1, 2008 @ 3:44 pm | Reply

  18. Hey US Forces u cant even defeat the Iraqi resistance fighters, now ur shit is piling up in the middle east…. after that CHina, Russia & Iran… Oh u realy are a pile of American shit!!!

    Comment by US SHIT — July 24, 2008 @ 12:35 am | Reply

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    Comment by bernadettejeg — March 27, 2009 @ 1:03 am | Reply

  20. WHEN THE WAR COMES U WILL NOT KNOW WHAT IS HAPPENING COZ ALL THE SETELLITES WILL BE DOWN . NO ELECTRICITY NO TV/RADIO WE ALL WILL BE LIVING IN FEAR. READY TO BE CANNIBALS ANYONE?

    Comment by KINGKONG — May 20, 2009 @ 12:49 am | Reply


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