I have been reading quite a few articles and books that all say the same thing. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has staked its legitimacy on continual economic growth. The belief is that if the economy continues to expand at the rapid rate that it has in the recent past, it will eventually benefit the average citizen to the point that he will be satisfied. No more unrest. No more protests. Just happy, wealthy people who will be ready to take the next step toward communism. This is usually accepted as rational and goes un-argued by most scholars. This also is what keeps me up at night.
Today I read that the world economy is a “bubble” whose time is almost up. This scares me and probably scares the leadership of the CCP. When that “bubble” bursts the market for Chinese goods will go down. People don’t buy when they have no money. (or in the U.S., people don’t buy when they max out their credit.) 80% of the Chinese economy is tied up in the world market. If the world goes into recession, China will crash. Hard.
Now I wouldn’t normally care about a financial crisis in China. Except for one little issue. The CCP will do anything it has to do to stay in power. So what does that mean?
The Nazis once faced a crushing economy and disillusioned people. They rallied the German people by evoking their sense of nationalism and launched the most devastating war in the history of the world. If the CCP sees angry nationalism as the only (or most likely) way to maintain power, it would be a bad day for tourism in Taiwan.